“Carbon neutral” and “net zero goals” are often thrown around in conversations about energy, but what does it actually mean for the lands of America? How many acres will be required for each state to achieve zero-carbon emission?
What is Net Zero?
Net zero is the balance between the amount of greenhouse gases produced and the amount removed from the atmosphere. Achieving net zero emissions through decarbonization means that a country, company, or individual is ensuring that their emissions do not add to the overall concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This can be done by reducing emissions through various means such as employing renewable energy, increasing efficiency, and bolstering conservation efforts. In addition, carbon offsetting methods, such as planting trees or investing in technologies that capture and store carbon, are also used to achieve balance. The concept of net zero is critical in the fight against climate change, aiming to limit global warming by transitioning to a sustainable future.
Achieving Net Zero: How Much Land is Required?
Assuming fossil fuel and biomass energy would be replaced with green energy, it would take 13 million acres of America’s land to obtain zero-carbon emission by generating electricity solely from solar farms. Green energy includes solar, wind, hydroelectric, geothermal electricity, and nuclear energy. Low-carbon energy includes natural gas, while high-carbon electricity is produced from coal, petroleum, and biomass sources. The amount would likely need to double to account for energy storage, electric vehicle (EV) charging stations, and the necessary increase in electrical infrastructure. By dedicating about 26 million acres or one percent of US land to solar energy—an area roughly the size of Kentucky—we could enable the nation to reach zero carbon emission.
In this feasibility study, we will assume that only land transportations (on-road passenger, freight, and rail) can be completely electrified. Using the driving statistics from the US Department of Transportation, LandGate estimated the average yearly car mileage per driver for each state which ranges from 7,013 miles per year for the District of Columbia to 24,069 miles per year for Wyoming. Combined with the number of licensed drivers for each state, we can derive the yearly mileage per state for on-road passengers. Because only an estimated 6.8% of vehicles on the road are EV's, and because we are not modeling an increase in the number of drivers, we will assume all vehicles are petroleum based.
Using an average EV energy consumption of 350 Wh (Watthour) per mile, and with more modeling, we converted this to a total energy consumption to turn the entire passenger vehicle fleet, along with freight and rail transportation, to electric. Utility-scale generators in the US currently generate around 4.7 million GWh per year, with 1.8 million GWh produced from high carbon emission sources of energy and 1.6 million GWh from low-carbon emission natural gas. The electricity needed to make land transportation totally zero carbon is estimated at 1.6 million GWh per year. To make the current electricity production and land transportation zero-carbon emission will require five million GWh per year of additional electricity generation from green energy.
This brings up an important question- which source of green energy will likely be used to produce these five million GWh per year of additional electricity? Growing calls for removing hydroelectric dams combined with increasing droughts, as illustrated by the Glen Canyon Dam in Arizona’s Lake Powell where water levels have dropped to a historic low, do not make new hydroelectric dams likely. Wind farms occupy more acreage than solar to produce the same amount of electricity, but they allow the simultaneous use of the land for agriculture and other activities.
To simplify this feasibility study, we will assume that all the additional electricity from green energy sources will come from solar farms. Using the solar irradiance, topography, exclusion zones, buildable acreage data that LandGate offers specific to every state, we calculated the acreage required to generate this additional electricity. Solar farms in the US built and being built to date currently occupy an estimated half million acres. We would need an additional 13 million acres of solar farms in the next decade to meet the zero carbon goals, over 25 times more than what has been built to date.
Achieving this goal would also require additional energy storage and infrastructure like transmission lines, substations, and distribution lines, which could be roughly estimated to be another 13 million acres. This Kentucky-size acreage required for green electricity production, transportation, and storage represents around one percent of the land in the continental United States. The first step in this energy transition is replacing the high carbon energy sources (coal and fossil fuels). The next step will be replacing the low-carbon energy sources (natural gas). Given the recent focus from investors on renewable energy, we want to believe these zero-carbon goals can be met, which will require that a lot of land across the US be dedicated to clean energy production.
The full article was first printed in Land Magazine's July issue. LandGate, a data intelligence and marketplace for land and its resources, provided the data for this article.
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