Amid the current political landscape, there is understandable concern about the future of the renewable energy industry. However, rather than feeling apprehensive, there is reason to be optimistic about the potential for growth and expansion under the current administration. A combination of factors—including federal deregulation, incentive programs, and market dynamics—are poised to lower development costs and fuel increased investments in renewable energy & data center projects.
Historic Performance of Renewables Stock Prices
Looking at the performance of broad renewable energy and storage ETFs over the past few years, we can gain valuable insight into the sector’s trajectory. The renewable energy market actually performed better during the Trump administration than it did under the Obama or Biden administrations.
From 2017 to 2021, the value of the iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN), which tracks the performance of renewable energy companies, surged by more than 278%. By contrast, from 2013 to 2017, the ETF saw only a modest increase of 9%, and from 2021 to 2025, its value has declined by 60%.
Administration | ETF ICLN Growth | ETF PBW Growth | ETF TAN Growth | ETFs avg. growth |
2nd Obama Admin (Jan 2013- Jan 2017) | 9.40% | -13.16% | -2.92% | -2.22% |
1st Trump Admin (Jan 2017- Jan 2021) | 278.77% | 566.61% | 544.43% | 463.27% |
Biden Admin (Jan 2021- Jan 2025) | -63.43% | -83.65% | -70.04 | -72.37% |
While factors such as interest rates, overall market health, and geopolitical events play a role in stock performance, these figures are a strong indicator of the potential for renewed growth in the renewable energy sector over the coming years.
Deregulation & Other Drivers of Upcoming Growth
The optimism surrounding the renewable energy industry can be attributed to several key factors:
Deregulation:Â The anticipated deregulation under the current administration is expected to reduce the cost of developing renewable energy projects. By easing burdensome regulations, the government is helping to make it easier and more affordable for companies to invest in and deploy renewable energy infrastructure.
Increased State-Level Incentives: States such as California and Illinois are proactively in talks to expand their renewable energy incentive programs. These state-level efforts are intended to fill the gap left by potential changes to federal incentives, ensuring that renewable energy development remains competitive and attractive to investors.
Increased Demand from Data Centers:Â The rapid growth of artificial intelligence (AI) and data centers across the United States is creating a massive increase in electricity demand. This surge in demand cannot be met solely by fossil fuels or by renewables alone, requiring substantial investments in both renewable and traditional energy infrastructure. This increased demand for electricity presents a unique opportunity for the renewable energy sector to scale rapidly.
Looking Ahead to the Future of Renewable Growth
The renewable energy industry is in a highly advantageous position to experience significant growth in the coming years, fueled by a combination of deregulation, state-level incentives, and increasing demand from emerging sectors like data centers. With a backdrop of historical success under the first Trump administration and the continued push for lower development costs, the future of renewable energy and data centers appears poised for strong expansion.
